For all the shuffling over the first 6+ weeks of the season there was a wonder if this year could just be chalk. Then Underdog(s) showed up. This weekend had 6 ranked teams lose, including OU toppling Texas, Kentucky over LSU, Gamecocks killed the Gators in the Swamp, UCLA won against Oregon where there were 10 turnovers between the two! Chaos is back! But, also for our voters chaos is back! Eek - let’s agree on some certainty.

Georgia Broke the Chart

In uncertain times, sometimes we return to the most dependable idea we can count on: Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. The Bulldogs who gained a 20–17 win cemented them foremost in the CFP conversation. The game was not without controversy, though.

Last week, Georgia met up with Alabama and Texas in the top tier and set up a MaxDiff top 3 matchup with Alabama. They then sacked Alabama four times, held Keelon Russell to a season-low 185 passing yards (maybe could have been more if Bolden didn’t run through a Alabama WR), and won 20–17.

The voters move Georgia to No. 1 - but, also did not move Alabama at all as they retained #2. Still, that W was enough to have the voters break the chart. I literally had to recode it this morning to show the difference between it and Alabama - not to mention Cincinnati.

The AP voters saw the same result and moved Georgia to No. 1. Perhaps, some of them are reading our results. The important thing to remember is that Alabama also remained in the top tier with Georgia and we will perhaps see another round (Alabama wants revenge), or two (queue Saban asking is this what you want from college football?).

Red River Reset

For me it was always the shootout, even if the recent games have not done much shooting. OU hadn’t scored an offense touchdown in the past two matchups headed into Saturday meetup at the Texas State Fair. Well, they broke that streak with one on Saturday and added a pick six, a blocked punt touchdown, and a dash of late game Sooner Magic by Mateer/Sategna/Sandell to push Oklahoma back into the win column over the heavily favored Longhorns. Texas had held No. 1 for two weeks this year, but I almost detect a sigh of relief from its fans of not wearing that #1 crown. Falling to 6th still reflects the accomplishments of the team against OSU and Tennessee, but silver lining may light a fire under their offense to offer more cover for its stellar defense.

Will Stein Goes for Dos, twice

Kentucky made the largest move near the top of the poll. The Wildcats rose 13 places, from 21st to eighth, after a 35–34 overtime win over LSU. It was Kentucky’s second consecutive 35-34 overtime victory and both ended up with Coach Stein going for two. Back-of-the-napkin math if Coach Stein thought he had a 55% chance of converting each that’s still only a 30% chance of converting both. Stein nevertheless made the same choice twice defending it with claims his team was depleted and thought that they’d struggle to stop the opposing offenses. He wanted to finish the game with it in his own hands. Love it!

I am starting to believe that maybe he might be a major reason things in Eugene, OR are not going the way all of CFB, pundits, fans, data nerds thought it would this year.

Agreement at the Top, Different Questions Below It

The AP poll and the MaxDiff poll agree on Georgia at No. 1 and Ohio State at No. 4. They also place Texas Tech 10th, Utah 11th, and Houston 20th.

Those are how the polls agree, where they differ… The AP ranks Notre Dame second and Miami third. Our voters place them fifth and seventh. MaxDiff has Alabama second and Kentucky eighth, compared with sixth and 15th in the AP poll. Different methodologies and different results, but we will probably all arrive at the same destination, just with a bunch of disagreements (helpful?) along the way.

Structure Has Arrived

Georgia and Alabama in the top tier hold 61% of the index points. The top seven teams hold nearly 83% up from 82% last week. There are now eight descriptive tiers across the 50-team field, with five tiers in our top 30 chart. 3 tiers in our top ten, 4 in our top 25 and a fifth to round out the top 30.

Miami, Texas Tech and Mississippi State had bye weeks this past weekend. Hopefully, getting the teams healthy. They probably felt lucky as Saturday was a day of trials and tribulations. However, they must now step on to the field again. Miami has to battle its wounded rival FSU, Texas Tech hosts Arizona State and the Bulldogs must try to keep the Lane Train getting back on track.

Every weekend offers opportunity and danger. Win, and your reward is steeper challenges. Lose, and your are a chapter in an Underdog’s story. Unlike the cute kids cartoon this weekend there is need to fear, more underdogs will be here. The only question is which college campuses?

How our FBS Resume MaxDiff poll works

Each voter saw 18 unique four-team groups and two separated repeat screens, choosing the strongest and weakest year-to-date resume in each group. Balanced forms distributed comparisons across the field, with randomized card order. Voters could skip unfamiliar groups instead of guessing.

After the poll closed, eligible choices were fit with the frozen symmetric MaxDiff model. Uncertainty and tier stability were estimated by resampling whole voters 2,000 times. Familiarity skips and repeat screens were not treated as additional preference choices.