Last week, Texas did not just rank first it took the king’s ransom. More than half the entire field and 6.6 times second-place LSU and it made sense rallying 21 points in 15 minutes to defeat the preseason #1 Ohio State at Darrell K Royal Texas-Memorial Stadium.

Now the week has turned and everyone watched Ole Miss tame the Tigers in Oxford, 32–24.

The king is dead. Again. Long live the king.

Ole Miss is No. 1 now with victories against the aforementioned LSU and Louisville (which took the early inside lane to the ACC championship game this week with a win versus SMU). A quieter week can allow another team to pass you without making your earlier accomplishment disappear. Texas’s handling of UTSA 30–6, let it fall to second. Thankfully, there is a new Saturday before us and we will get to decide who is the real UT and maybe a return of the king.

A Throne, Not a Coronation

To be fair, the bootstrap intervals for Ole Miss and Texas overlap while the point estimate gives Ole Miss the lead. What is clear is that they are the only deserved Tier 1 teams according to the voters.

The clearest break is not between Ole Miss and Texas. It comes immediately after Texas: 1,179 down to Georgia at 183, an 84% drop in one place. Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame make up Tier 2. Below that, a broad middle still runs from Mississippi State at No. 8 through Michigan at No. 26. That is the encouraging part: with three weeks of evidence, voters now support three distinct tiers inside the top 30, where a week ago there was one. We can expect that the exact order inside those groups will move. However, shoring up the boundaries is the exercise we are trying to take on.

LSU Got the Receipt

Second last week. Sixteenth now. What has the Lane Train wrought? It is too far to claim that LSU became the 16th-best team in the country overnight. It is the answer to the question this poll actually asks: Who has assembled the strongest season-to-date resume? But, it also weighs heavily on fan’s mind. We found out Leavitt is not Chambliss, but is he closer to Kamario or Mateer? From my vantage, it seemed he wanted to run more than pass, but I would have felt the same with big Will Echoles bearing down on me from the B gap. However, that is the difference between a weekly power ranking and a year-to-date resume. We are not starting over every Sunday morning. We are adding evidence. But could further declines happen… I’ve heard some anoint LSU’s next matchup against Texas A&M as the Anxiety Bowl as one team’s season could basically be done before October even begins. The Lane Train elevated tracks are running short and are wobbly, but such is the bargain when you deal with Lane.

The AP Comparison

The AP poll still has Texas first and Ole Miss fourth. Our voters reverse them, putting Ole Miss first and Texas second. Georgia is third here and second in the AP; Miami is fourth here and sixth in the AP. Six teams appear in both polls' top seven, but the order reflects the difference between the questions: the AP is a traditional every voter-defined ranking of best/deserving/resume, while this poll asks only about the resume assembled so far.

That fuller comparison surfaces some striking disagreements. Mississippi State is eighth here and 24th in the AP. Florida is 10th here and 21st there. Pittsburgh, Kansas State and Nebraska all sit at least 12 places higher in the MaxDiff results than in the AP’s other receiving votes ordering. In the other direction, Oregon is 20th in the AP but 39th here, while Oklahoma is 29th in the extended AP order and 42nd in this poll.

Again, those are not claims about who would win tomorrow. They show where a ranking of current resumes diverges from the broader judgment represented by the AP ballot.

The Season Is Beginning to Sort Itself

Three weeks in, certainty has not arrived, but structure has.

Ole Miss and Texas have separated. Five teams sit in the next clearly supported group. A wide middle still needs more evidence, but it is no longer one enormous holding tank.

We are already at the quarter turn, which seems crazy. College football is sweet, but short.

The crown has already changed hands twice. Another Saturday will decide whether it remains in Oxford, while the Rebels are away in Gainesville.

How our FBS Resume MaxDiff poll works

Each voter saw 18 unique four-team groups and two separated repeat screens, choosing the strongest and weakest year-to-date resume in each group. Balanced forms distributed comparisons across the field, with randomized card order. Voters could skip unfamiliar groups instead of guessing.

After the poll closed, eligible choices were fit with the frozen symmetric MaxDiff model. Uncertainty and tier stability were estimated by resampling whole voters 2,000 times. Familiarity skips and repeat screens were not treated as additional preference choices.