Five of the AP’s top seven teams lost. Ohio State and Miami survived by the slimmest of margins. Georgia, the team that held more than half of last week’s MaxDiff index, lost at home to an unranked opponent. This was not the usual weekly reshuffle. Coastal Chaos escaped the ACC and swallowed the entire sport.

I Was Born in the Chaos, Molded by It

For a decade, the ACC Coastal was where certainty went to disappear. All seven division members won it during a seven-season span. Notre Dame then joined the conference temporarily in 2020 and finished atop the standings. So, 8 for 8 in a 7 team division! Every season looked orderly on paper. Every fall, the paper was ripped to shreds.

The ACC eliminated its divisions in 2023. Coastal Chaos escaped containment.

Georgia, No. 1 for exactly one week in this poll, lost at home to unranked Auburn. Tennessee smoked cigars on the Third Saturday in October. Florida beat Texas, as reptiles do. Ohio State survived Indiana by a foot. By Sunday, five of the AP’s top seven had lost. Something that had never happened in the poll’s 90-year history.

And who was left standing at the top? Miami in the AP poll. However, our voters read the chaos differently.

BYU Grabs the Crown

The Cougars entered South Bend as 10.5-point underdogs and came away with a 28–24 victory over Notre Dame. They won on the last play, but perhaps not the last second. The ending was tense, but the result stands: BYU is 6–0 and has beaten Notre Dame for the first time since 2004.

Our voters moved BYU from ninth to first, giving us the smallest first-place score since LSU grabbed the crown in Week 1. The AP voters placed BYU second. The bars give the order. The tiers tell you how much the order means. Placement is earned, but there is enough overlap between BYU, Ohio State, Georgia and Miami to place all four in the top tier. Georgia remained there even after its surprising loss to Auburn. Auburn did not need Jordan-Hare spookiness; it leaned on star quarterback Byrum Brown between the hedges.

Chaos is a Ladder?

Auburn made the largest jump, rising from 35th to 22nd. Tennessee climbed 11 places, from 16th to fifth, after taking down Alabama. Florida also gained 11 places after beating Texas. Houston rose nine, BYU rose eight, and LSU rose seven. The bill arrived just as quickly on the other side. Alabama and Mississippi State each fell 12 places. Texas dropped 11. Notre Dame, Nebraska and Wisconsin each fell seven.

Georgia presents the most interesting case. Its index fell from 2,607 to 576, but the Bulldogs moved only from first to third and remained in Tier 1.

Where Does the Chaos Lead Us?

The AP poll has Miami first, BYU second and Ohio State third. MaxDiff has BYU first, Ohio State second, Georgia third and Miami fourth. All four of our Tier 1 teams also sit in the AP top five. There is broad agreement about the contenders, but not about their order.

The disorder also produced an unexpected amount of structure. BYU, Ohio State, Georgia and Miami form Tier 1 and hold about 61% of the full index. Tier 2 runs from Tennessee through Houston. Together, the top 11 teams hold roughly 88% of the field’s résumé preference.

That is the strange lesson of Coastal Chaos going national after last week’s news that the playoff was expanding to 24. Some fans worried that would cheapen the regular season, that a year would only matter if you had a magical run, or you ruined your rival’s. I don't think anyone in Knoxville, Auburn, Provo or Columbus spent Saturday night thinking about any of that. They formed memories they’ll have forever. That's what the regular season is for.

How our FBS Resume MaxDiff poll works

Each voter saw 18 unique four-team groups and two separated repeat screens, choosing the strongest and weakest year-to-date resume in each group. Balanced forms distributed comparisons across the field, with randomized card order. Voters could skip unfamiliar groups instead of guessing.

After the poll closed, eligible choices were fit with the frozen symmetric MaxDiff model. Uncertainty and tier stability were estimated by resampling whole voters 2,000 times. Familiarity skips and repeat screens were not treated as additional preference choices.